Solar Payback Calculator

Enter a solar quote, annual generation and the value of self-used and exported electricity. Inspect annual savings and the cumulative balance over your chosen period.

Inputs
currency
currency
IRS section 25D: expenditures must be made by December 31, 2025. Timing means original installation completion, or taxpayer original use for construction/reconstruction. A 2025 prepayment does not qualify a 2026 installation. See IRS FAQ 7 in Sources.
kWh
IPART’s 2025–26 regional scenario is illustrative, not a prediction. Use monitoring data or an installer simulation matched to your household load for a project-specific share.
%
Self-used solar kWh divided by generation after curtailment. Estimate from monitoring or installer simulation.
currency/kWh
currency/kWh
currency
currency
%
DOE describes about 0.5% annual module efficiency degradation. This is a module-level guide, not a forecast of total system losses or outages. Replace with project-specific monitoring or installer assumptions; DOE guidance.
%
years

Results

First nonnegative year-end balance
13 years
Net upfront cost
12,000.00 currency units
First-year net savings
1,100.00 currency units
Balance after model period
12,767.14 currency units
Undiscounted annual cash flow
YearGeneration kWhGross valueNet savingsCumulative balance
16,0001,200.00 currency units1,100.00 currency units-10,900.00 currency units
25,9701,194.00 currency units1,094.00 currency units-9,806.00 currency units
35,940.151,188.03 currency units1,088.03 currency units-8,717.97 currency units
45,910.451,182.09 currency units1,082.09 currency units-7,635.88 currency units
55,880.91,176.18 currency units1,076.18 currency units-6,559.70 currency units
65,851.491,170.30 currency units1,070.30 currency units-5,489.40 currency units
75,822.241,164.45 currency units1,064.45 currency units-4,424.96 currency units
85,793.121,158.62 currency units1,058.62 currency units-3,366.33 currency units
95,764.161,152.83 currency units1,052.83 currency units-2,313.50 currency units
105,735.341,147.07 currency units1,047.07 currency units-1,266.43 currency units
115,706.661,141.33 currency units1,041.33 currency units-225.10 currency units
125,678.131,135.63 currency units35.63 currency units-189.47 currency units
135,649.741,129.95 currency units1,029.95 currency units840.47 currency units
145,621.491,124.30 currency units1,024.30 currency units1,864.77 currency units
155,593.381,118.68 currency units1,018.68 currency units2,883.45 currency units
165,565.411,113.08 currency units1,013.08 currency units3,896.53 currency units
175,537.591,107.52 currency units1,007.52 currency units4,904.05 currency units
185,509.91,101.98 currency units1,001.98 currency units5,906.03 currency units
195,482.351,096.47 currency units996.47 currency units6,902.50 currency units
205,454.941,090.99 currency units990.99 currency units7,893.48 currency units
215,427.661,085.53 currency units985.53 currency units8,879.02 currency units
225,400.521,080.10 currency units980.10 currency units9,859.12 currency units
235,373.521,074.70 currency units974.70 currency units10,833.83 currency units
245,346.651,069.33 currency units969.33 currency units11,803.16 currency units
255,319.921,063.98 currency units963.98 currency units12,767.14 currency units
  • Payback is the first year-end crossing; a later replacement can make the balance negative again. No financing, discount rate, residual value or battery is included.
  • Use generation after curtailment. Self-consumption share and annual costs stay constant; both energy rates escalate together. Fixed utility charges are not avoided. All monetary inputs use one currency.

Results update as you type. The share link stores your inputs after the # in the address, which is not sent to our server, but anyone you send it to can read them.

This is a general estimate for information only, not tax, legal or financial advice. Real rules have more conditions than a calculator can show, so check the official source below or a qualified professional for your situation.

How it works

Value self-consumed generation at the avoided import rate and exports at their compensation rate, as described by the Australian Government. Enter generation after curtailment and use a realistic self-consumption share.

Year y value = first-year kWh × (1 − degradation)^(y−1) × [self share × import rate + export share × export rate] × (1 + escalation)^(y−1) Net savings = value − maintenance − replacement in its selected year

The cumulative balance starts at minus installed cost plus verified upfront incentives. Payback is the first nonnegative year-end balance, not a discounted investment return. Both rates escalate together; costs stay constant. Set escalation to zero for an unchanged-price scenario.

IRS guidance says section 25D is unavailable for expenditures after December 31, 2025. IRS FAQ 7 treats section 25D expenditures as made when original installation is completed, or when the taxpayer begins original use of a newly constructed or reconstructed structure. A 2025 prepayment for a 2026 installation does not qualify. No federal homeowner credit is applied automatically. Enter only incentives independently verified for your project.

Prices and loads are editable examples. The optional 30% self-use scenario is IPART’s typical NSW household assumption in its 2025–26 report, not a universal forecast. DOE describes about 0.5% annual module efficiency degradation; whole-system losses and outages may differ. Use monitoring or an installer’s simulation for project-specific assumptions. Use one currency throughout. Calculations keep full precision internally; a scale-aware floating-point tolerance recognizes exact zero-balance crossings without rounding cash flows; displayed energy and money are rounded, and year-end payback is shown in whole years where applicable.

Worked examples

Flat prices and no degradation

A 12,000 system generating 6,000 kWh, with 50% self-use at 0.30 and 50% export at 0.10, earns 1,200 per year. With maintenance of 100, no replacement and zero degradation or escalation, annual net savings are 1,100. First year-end payback is year 11 and the 25-year balance is 15,500.

Replacement shifts payback

For that same system, a 2,000 replacement at the end of year 10 delays first year-end payback to year 13. The 25-year balance becomes 13,500.

Frequently asked questions

Does this assume a federal tax credit?
No. The incentive field starts at zero. IRS guidance ends section 25D for expenditures after December 31, 2025. IRS FAQ 7 treats section 25D expenditures as made when original installation is completed, or when the taxpayer begins original use of a newly constructed or reconstructed structure. A 2025 prepayment for a 2026 installation does not qualify.
How is export different from self-use?
Self-use avoids buying electricity. Exports receive the entered export compensation. Do not assume full retail compensation unless your tariff provides it.
Does it include financing or inflation?
No financing or discount rate is included. Escalation changes only the two energy rates; maintenance and replacement stay constant.
Can payback reverse later?
Yes. A later replacement can make an already positive balance negative. Inspect the annual balance table rather than relying only on the first crossing.
What generation should I enter?
Use a site-specific annual production estimate after losses and curtailment. This tool does not infer yield from roof size or location.

Sources

Last reviewed 2026-11-14; next review due by 2027-01-15. The method is written out above so you can check our math.